A beginner's guide to fashion trend forecasting with Geraldine Wharry

A summary of how trend forecasting works:

"Identifying a trend is a continuous effort of compiling observations. I call it "hunting and gathering". It requires a lot of curiosity and interest in a wide array of subjects ranging from art and design, reaching over to science, technology, socio-economics, food as well as travel to name a few. Whilst gathering facts, at the root of it is also a personal intuition and an eye for what's next, that can't be taught or necessarily explained. Personally I'm constantly collecting ideas and images and have built an archive over many years of designing and researching. Once I see there is a flurry of images with one particular thread running through, it's very easy to see this is a trend, although sometimes a single image can be so powerful that it triggers an instant conviction. That's also what defines the difference between short-term forecasting and long-term forecasting which are key in the business. With trends that are very present on Internet, in magazines, often stemming from the streets or the catwalks, it's easy to see they might have a 1 to 2 year cycle. Whereas some trends are very forward thinking – for example the breakthrough in scientific textiles – that they require more in-depth investigation, risk taking as well as brain storming with experts from various fields of research. The final element to keep in mind is that some trends are perennial and so embedded in our common language that they never fully go away, for example fifties fashion or military inspired clothing. One of my favorite and iconic trend forecasters, Lidewij Edelkoort, says "trend forecasting is much like archeology but to the future". I really like this vision of trend forecasting as archaeology. What she's referring to is the importance of recording information. My interpretation of this is also how important it is for trend forecasters to have a very good knowledge of what was designed 10 years, 40 years or over 100 years ago. Every trend has its roots somewhere in history. So whilst you're looking forward, you're also taking into account past references. This is something I often do when working on trend reports for key shapes or key details. I research fashion history books, blogs, or interior design for example and it's very interesting to see the commonalities with what's being designed today. You realize it's one big creative loop that is constantly growing and updating itself. The last point I really wanted to focus on is that everyone is following trends on the internet and curating their own self-image today. I call it "our digital self". So for trend experts forecasters, this is an exciting challenge. Of course we are very inspired by bloggers, street shots and viral phenomena on the internet, but we also have to bring a unique take on trends. I'm encouraging forecasters to take another point of view, one that’s adventurous and exciting and to always think as influencers, not followers."

Text and image from: BOARD, The British Library. 2014. “A beginner’s guide to fashion trend forecasting with Geraldine Wharry - inspired by... Blog.” [online]. Available at: http://blogs.bl.uk/inspiredby/2013/05/a-beginners-guide-to-fashion-trend-forecasting.html [accessed 22 February 2017].

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